Appointing a CEO, a Successor or a Minister: What CVs and Interviews Miss

Most senior appointments still rest on a CV, a reputation and a few conversations over lunch. Boards and families make them carefully and in good faith. The research suggests they are using one of the least reliable methods available.

What predicts performance

In 1998 Frank Schmidt and John Hunter combined decades of studies on how well different selection methods predict job performance. In 2022 Paul Sackett and colleagues revisited that work with newer data. One finding stands out: structured interviews, in which every candidate is asked the same questions and the answers are scored against agreed criteria, predict performance roughly twice as well as unstructured conversations.

Why good people misjudge good people

As early as 1920, the psychologist Edward Thorndike described the halo effect: one impressive quality colours our judgement of everything else. A confident speaker seems strategic; a familiar background seems trustworthy. Senior candidates are, almost by definition, skilled at making a strong first impression.

Robert and Joyce Hogan added another layer with their work on the dark side of leadership: the strengths that carry people to the top can become liabilities under stress. Confidence turns into arrogance, attention to detail into control, charm into manipulation. These derailers rarely appear in a calm interview. They appear on a bad day, under pressure, when the stakes are real.

Questions worth sitting with

• What would this person do on their worst day in the role, and how would you know in advance?
• What evidence would make you change your mind about the favourite candidate?
• Are you choosing the person most likely to succeed, or the one most like the last person who did?
• In a family business, whose judgement is the family really trusting: the assessment, or the father?

What the research suggests

Combining methods helps: structured interviews, validated psychometric instruments interpreted by a qualified test user, realistic simulations of the work, and references that ask about specific situations. Watching how someone behaves in an unfamiliar setting, where status no longer helps, can add information that no interview provides. In succession, an independent assessment does not replace a family's judgement, but it gives everyone the same facts.

Sources: Schmidt, F. L. and Hunter, J. E. (1998), Psychological Bulletin; Sackett, P. R., Zhang, C., Berry, C. M. and Lievens, F. (2022), Journal of Applied Psychology; Thorndike, E. L. (1920), Journal of Applied Psychology; Hogan, R. and Hogan, J. (2001), International Journal of Selection and Assessment.

These ideas are developed in Michele's book Leadership Coaching with Horses: The Power of Psychometrics and Biofeedback (Routledge, 2025).

If this is familiar, write to Michele's office in confidence: info@nature-motivation.com. Every enquiry is read by Michele.